List Categories | List All Articles | List Articles By Title
Stocks & Oil, Sat Jun 18th, 2005
Both the stock market and oil prices rallied recently, which seems to be a paradox, because high oil prices are negative for earnings (i.e. a higher production cost and a higher consumer tax). However, the stock market was worried about another "soft patch," of slower economic growth, and the sharp rise in oil prices suggest the U.S. economy is still expanding at above trend growth.
The two charts below are same period daily charts of SPX and OIH. The short-term technical indicators suggest SPX is near a top, e.g. VIX closing at a multi-year low, VXN closing at an all-time low, and the NYSE Oscillator's 20 day MA at an extreme level. Also, Nasdaq closed at 2,090 Fri, and 2,100 is major resistance. SPX rallied to 1,219.5 Fri, and 1,220 may be resistance. SPX may be creating a bearish head & shoulders pattern, with the left shoulder at 1,217.9, the head at 1,229.1, and the right shoulder at 1,220 (see chart). SPX may pullback, consolidate, and become more volatile next week. Major support is about 1,200, the current 20 day MA, which SPX held over the rally, and 1,200, in general, which is psychological support and a congestion area. Major resistance is at 1,220 and 1,229 (the recent high).
OIH closed at an all-time high and created a bearish hammer Fri. Major resistance is Fri's high at 104. Major support is at 100.30 (previous highs), and the 10 day MA, currently at 99 1/4. There's also an open gap at just below 95 1/2, and Jul Max Pain is still 95. OIH rose about 20 points, while oil rose from $47 to about $59 a barrel. Consequently, if oil falls to the low $50s, then OIH may retrace 50% of the 20 point rise. The steep rise (also, see MACD) suggests a consolidation period soon. Both the RSI and Oscillator (ULT) are severely overbought, particularly for an index.
Perhaps, the oil market has discounted future events that would influence oil prices, e.g. stonger than expected global growth, the start of hurricane season Jun 1st, which may affect oil platforms and refineries in the Gulf, end-of-the-quarter window dressing, and the 4th of July holiday, which is the start of the summer driving season. Also, I may add, the U.S. oil strategic reserve is filled up. So, the federal government isn't draining oil from the market. Moreover, China's economy is "overheating," and it's to China's benefit to grow at a sustainable rate, to prevent inefficiencies.
Next week is a light economic and earnings data week. So, oil prices may have a more influencial effect on stock prices. Consequently, SPX puts, for example, may hedge OIH puts. Both SPX and OIH are at high levels. Economic reports next week are: Mon: Leading Economic Indicators, Thu: Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales, and Fri: Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. Also, the U.S. weekly oil inventory data Wed should move oil prices. I believe, the positive correlation in stocks and oil will decouple next week, because the longer oil prices stay high, the more negative it will affect earnings of non-energy stocks. Arthur Eckart, PeakTrader.com
See PeakTrader.com Market Overview section in Forum Index for charts.
Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.
Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past three years.
An insane person cannot evaluate an insane evaluation system.As you know I have been trying to restore sanity to the insane premises Wall Street has been teaching its brokers and you for all these years.
How to Short Stocks? How to Make Money when Your Stocks Go Down by Shorting
The stock market can present you with a lot of hot stocks every day. Many of them are new technology stocks that come from the nanotech, biotech, voip, healthcare, homeland defense or internet sectors.
Seecrets on Investment: Tired of Making Huge Losses in the Stock Market - Part 2
Fundamental analysis.Fundamentals analysis says the best way to predict the future trends of a stock is to understand the financial figures of the underlying company.
How to Find Value in No Load Mutual Fund Investing
What are you thinking when it comes to your no load mutual fund selections? Are you saving pennies and sacrificing dollars?Are you spending your time looking at expense ratios, analyzing Morningstar ratings and searching for funds with low fees and no 12b1 charges? If you are like most people, you know these things in and out. You've spent hours evaluating them, and your chosen mutual funds cost little to purchase and maintain.
Price to Earnings Ratio - P/E
After finding the price of a particular stock, usually the next number everyone looks at is the P/E ratio.P/E is the ratio of a company's share price to its per-share earnings.
How to Read an Annual Report
Every publicly traded company is required by the SEC(Securities and Exchange Commission) to provide annual reports to it's shareholders, and the general public as well. These annual reports contain very important financial information, as well of summaries of the companies progress made by the CEO, board members, etc.
Mutual Fund Expense Lies
When purchasing mutual funds we are cautioned to read the prospectus, look at past performance, check out the fund manager's record and see what their expense ratios have been.We are also told that we should not buy funds with expenses exceeding 1% to 1.
Hold Em and Fold Em
When most analysts, financial planners, fund specialists and investors try to decide whether to buy a particular stock they immediately go to the financial statements to determine the growth potential of the company. Numbers and more numbers.
The POWER of a Proven Stock Investment Plan
When you invest in the stock market for ever-increasing cash dividend income, verses trying to make a buck in the stock market, your mindset will change. There will no longer be a fear of losing money in the stock market.
Overvalued & Underbought
With all the bad news that has been dumped upon the economy for some reason the stock market is going up. Why?The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has just set up new guidelines for core earnings.
In 1960 an engineer working for a watch company in Switzerland discovered that a small crystal would vibrate at a constant rate. He found this was so accurate that it could be used to calibrate time so he took it to company management and said it would make an entirely new kind of watch that had no springs and no gears.
Small-Cap Stocks: The Beginning of the Journey
When an individual investor wants to roll up his sleeves and do some research in the pursuit of the next big winner in the stock market, the place many start is in the small cap sector.As with the other capitulation sizes (capitalization is a stock's market value), no one can completely agree on a precise definition, but corporations under $2 billion are often considered small caps.
Mutual funds are doing more and more to discourage investors from leaving them and taking their money to a better performing fund. What does better performing mean? It has nothing to do with who the manager is, what the expense ratio is or how well they performed over the past 5 or 10 years.
What To Buy?
Now that you have some money burning a hole in your pocket and the stock market is going up you have decided to buy some stock or maybe a mutual fund, but you have the momentous decisions to what to buy.At this point you have three decisions to make besides which equity to buy:1.
How To Be A Winner
Everyone who invests in the stock market wants to be a winner. Each person's definition of a winner will be somewhat different, but there is hardly one who isn't looking for that stock that will double in price within one year.
The Importance of Using Stop Loss Orders When Spread Trading the Financial Markets
A Guide to Using Stop Loss Orders Stop losses are market orders designed to allow you to limit your losses.When you place a stop loss you are instructing the spread betting company or stock broker to cut your position when it reaches a certain loss level (or in some cases, profit level - more later).
Frog In The Pot
You remember the story about the frog that was put into a pot of cold water on the stove. He was not concerned.
Stock Trading Diversification
This is the continuing story of our two imaginary traders, Peter and Paul.Peter is a professional trader, Paul is not.
Oil Stocks As A Long Term Investment
The demand for world oil is increasing while world reserves are decreasing. This is a known fact.
The Winter Games for the Olympics are coming up soon and many will want to go to see the giant slalom event. That's the one where the skier starts off from the little hut at the top of a long slope, picks up speed and makes his way around poles on the way down.
home | site map
All articles are copyright to their owners.
Note: this website lists articles, We do not Write Articles !